His race is expected to be very competitive. Approval ratings of the incumbent Democratic Governor, Ralph Northam, have dropped 10 points to 49%, which is still better than the average drop of 14.38% for Democratic governors. while Evers' approval rating remains above water. This raises the question of whether Johnson in 2022 can replicate his 2016 vote in the WOW counties, or whether he needs to make up any erosion there in increasingly red rural Wisconsin. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) insisted Sunday that his low approval ratings are not at all his fault and that he is "not a polarizing figure." Johnson made the comments during an interview with journalist Adrienne Pedersen on Milwaukee television . Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. Evers, by contrast, had a net positive rating, with 48% approving of the job he did and 45% disapproving. Faircloth's loss came in a year in which the President, Democrat Bill Clinton, had an approval rating in the 60s. The results echo a poll done in mid-May by Public Policy Polling for the Milwaukee nonprofit,Milwaukee Works, which found a virtual dead heat between Michels and Kleefisch. The poll also did head-to-head matchups of incumbent Republican U.S. Franklin is professor of law and public policy at Marquette Law School, and director of the Marquette Law School Poll, And we see that downward movement across most of the groups we looked at. All rights reserved. The same Marquette poll showed that among likely voters, Johnson is leading his Democratic . Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Learn more. In fact, the only current senator with a lower approval rating is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has infamously blocked hundreds of popular pieces of legislation.. The Wisconsin Republican remains deeply disliked by his constituents. He said the early data has no way of accounting for the X factor of Ron Johnson when hes campaigning.. Bolded rows denote governors running for reelection in 2022. ", Johnson has also refused to fight to locate jobs in the United States instead of abroad. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has already spent money on primary-day attacks ads that accuse Johnson of working in Congress to benefit himself and wealthy donors at the expense of ordinary voters. RCP House Ratings, Map. Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. trails Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes by seven points his largest deficit in a key race that could determine which party controls the Senate according to a poll from Marquette University Law School released Wednesday, as Johnson faces several political controversies. By Eli Yokley. Any off-year election is going to be a referendum on Joe Biden, which is why its going to be a really difficult year for Democrats in places like Wisconsin, said former Wisconsin radio host Charlie Sykes, an early proponent of Johnson during his 2010 bid whos turned critical of the senator and the Trump-inspired GOP. This ad will close automatically in 15 seconds. They all sit in closely divided states (from R+2 for New Hampshire to D+2 for Minnesota), yes, but they are all also quite popular. Previous Morning Consult polling has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. That said, they are all in very safe states, so they shouldnt be in any danger. With a PARG of +13, Democratic Gov. Voters do not. On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. With Biden similarly struggling with independents, Sykes said the stakes have been raised for Democrats to nominate a candidate in their August primary who is acceptable to voters embarrassed by Johnson.. RCP House Ratings, Map. All rights reserved. and his comments about vaccines and the 2020 election as chief examples. Hey NieWiederKrieg, I think a part of your brain must be dead. No matter who wins the 2020 presidential election, they wont be able to get much done if their party doesnt also win the Senate. Biden Job Approval on Issues. Johnson, a Republican and staunch ally of Donald Trump, enjoys the approval of 45% of Trump votersthough a considerable 31% of Trump voters . The state has shifted right since Johnson's 3.4% win in 2016, and on paper, he chould be well positioned to win as a Republican running in a midterm with a Democratic president with low approval ratings. An older poll, conducted last September by Clarity Campaign Labs for Barnes' campaign, showed the Democrat tied with Johnson. The United States of America has 100 senators, and all are constantly under public scrutiny. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Combining the four surveys that Marquette has done over the past nine months, 35% of registered voters view Johnson favorably and 44% view him unfavorably a net rating of minus 9. The American Independent is the No. Jared Polis to be vulnerable in a Republican-leaning midterm in D+6 Colorado, but his net approval rating is 16 points higher than that, giving him a nice cushion in case the national environment puts his state in play. Last month, he opposed federal funds to help the American microchip industry compete against China, indicating that he did not want to "have government picking the winners and losers.". Yes. Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes in a swing-state face off that could become one of the most competitive races of the midterms. The souring has been steepest among independent voters in Wisconsin. Democratic Governor Laura Kelly ran for re-election to a second term. His current term ends on January 3, 2029. Governors net approval ratings (approval ratings minus disapproval ratings) for the first three months of 2022 relative to the FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of their states. While the majority of Wisconsin Republican voters (62 percent) approve of his job performance, that figure is down from 70 percent before the pandemic and from 78 percent in the first three months of 2017, just after his re-election. to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. There are far fewer voters than in the past who are undecided about Johnson, which could make it harder for him to improve his image over the course of this campaign. Timmy! The question is whether or not hell focus on the winning message, whether or not people will respond, or whether those negative numbers are so baked in, he said. Hi. 2022 Senate Elections (51) Pollapalooza (249) A few weeks after the 2020 election, the Crystal Ball put out an early look at the 2022 Senate races. PPP recently conducted a poll for 314 Action in Wisconsin and found that the state unsurprisingly continues to be closely divided politically about a lot of things but not its feelings about Ron Johnson. Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had not held office prior to his election to the Senate, being a CEO for a plastics and manufacturing company beforehand. Johnson has come under fire in recent months for his votes to cut taxes for himself and his very rich donors while backing "most of" National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Rick Scott's 11-point "Rescue America" proposal which includes a large tax hike for more than 100 million lower-income and retired Americans and fighting against efforts to make child care more affordable. Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson. Wisconsin paints a clear example of the collapse in Bidens popularity. At this point, very few people dont have an impression of him, Wikler said. Have questions? Today, the Democrat wins, he said. Let's get into the rationale for these changes. A Democratic governor with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARG of +9 (2+7 = 9). ), could be Democrats best hope to flip a Senate seat in November. PARS, like PARG, is calculated by measuring the distance between a politicians net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) in her state and the states partisan lean (how much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning it is than the country as a whole).2 Take West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin as an example. Note that the partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. Sen. Ron Johnson is commonly referred to as one of the country's most unpopular U.S. senators. Approval Ratings (130) Johnson is quite popular today with pro-Trump voters in Wisconsin (those who view Trump positively), drawing a net rating of around plus 60 in recent years. @baseballot, 2022 Election (348 posts) The remaining 12% said they did not know or had no opinion. Harry S. Truman 1945-53. Voters will be measuring him against a Democratic opponent, but we wont know who that will be until after the states August primary. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. But what we cant be as confident about is whether its reversible.. Johnson, 67, is also the subject of an ethics complaint over a $280,000 gift to his chief of staff, which he argued was intended for the employees cancer treatments, NBC News reported. According to a Morning Consult Political Intelligence survey of all 50 states, just 37% of registered . Mandela Barnes lead over Sen. Ron Johnson for the key Senate seat widened from two points in June to seven points in a new poll released Wednesday. Bush 1989-93. Get The American Independent in your inbox, Former senior investigative reporter at ThinkProgress and former head of money-in-politics reporting at the Center for Public Integrity. Senators net approval ratings for the first three months of 2019 relative to the partisan leans* of their states. As Sen. Ron Johnson weighs whether to run again, his embrace of Trump's anti-democratic campaign to overturn the election results already has angered some mainstream Republican allies, and is poised As Sen. Ron Johnson weighs future, Trump ties take a toll > Less popular senator: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson > Q4 2019 approval rating: 41.0% > Least popular House member: Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, 1st District After he was elected in 2020 to serve out the remainder of the late John McCain's (R-AZ) term, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) is seeking a full term this year. The new poll found that 67% of Republicans are very excited about the election, compared to 58% of Democrats and 35% of independents. Sometimes there are these atmospheric waves where it doesnt matter what the campaign does, he said. Wednesday, August 17, 2022, 2:25pm. * Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. 56% of independent voters in . 'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson, Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson, who is backed by former President Donald Trump, as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. -36. 772 days 4 . This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. GOP Candidate: Ron Johnson (Incumbent) Dem Candidates: Mandela Barnes. Some 83% of Republicans polled said they are absolutely certain to vote in the November general election, over 82% of Democrats and 66% of independents. Similarly, if you were to look at state partisanship alone, you might assume that Democratic Sens. On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. The state is closely divided in its partisan affiliation- 29% say they're Democrats, 31% say they're Republicans, and 39% say they're [] Help assure the future of citys fastest growing publication. Hitt said Johnsons message in a Wall Street Journal op-ed he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. How Daniel Kelly worked with the GOP to fuel election denialism. But it has also been pronounced among some more politically mixed groups that arent as lopsidedly red or blue. In 2016, Johnson easily outperformed Donald Trump on the same ballot in these three counties. . In Marquettes polling, most voters including about one-third of Republicans are skeptical toward Johnsons statements about COVID. @baseballot, Mitch McConnell (63 posts) Doug Jones (36) @eyokley, Download Fastest Growing Brands 2022 Report, Sen. Ron Johnson speaks about the origins of COVID-19 at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in June 2021. The world has been led by intensive and extensive waves of darkness from renaissance all the way down to the Covid crisis. This poll paired each of the top four primary candidates against Johnson. And you might expect Democratic Gov. McConnell manages just a -13 net approval rating despite inhabiting an R+23 state. Shaded rows denote senators whose seats are up in 2020, excluding those senators who are not seeking reelection. Johnsons name recognition is also significantly higher today than it was back then. A Morning Consult poll earlier this year had Johnson's approval rating at 36 percent. The idea behind these stats is that a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Massachusetts isnt the same as a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Florida. During the pandemic, the senator has blasted health agencies and medical experts, promoted unproven treatments and questioned the broad push for vaccination. Will they go back to the Republican Party because of Biden, or go to the polls and think, Yeah, I dont like Biden, but Ron Johnsons too crazy for Wisconsin?, he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. Mandela Barnes leads Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson among likely voters in the November election, according to the latest poll from the Marquette University Law School. Bill Clinton 1993-2001. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot,6 Republicans currently lead by 2.6 percentage points (45.5 percent to 42.9 percent). Finally, the fault lines in the electorate are deeper today than they were back then. The two-term incumbent, backed by former President Donald Trump, is the only Republican senator running for reelection in a state that President Joe Biden won in 2020. This unpopularity could drag him down in November, allowing Democrats to flip a Senate seat that, on paper, should remain Republican in this environment. Gerald Ford 1974-77. Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. Rife's warrant was served Wednesday and he is awaiting . And he doesn't shy away from progressive social issues: His TikTok account, for instance, features posts of him calling for the Senate to end the filibuster, codify Roe v. Wade into law and pass the Equality Act to enact protections for transgender people. Compared with his peak in popularity in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 when his average favorability rating was plus 10 the downturn is notable. She pointed to tax breaks he supported that benefited big donors to his campaigns and his comments about vaccines and the 2020 election as chief examples. A. In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Barnes still leads, with 25% of the vote versus 21% for Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, 9%for state treasurer Sarah Godlewski. WISN host Adrienne Pederson grilled Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) about his toxic brand and his low approval ratings.In an interview on Sunday, Pederson asked Johnson how he planned to win re-election . He has been endorsed by well-known political figures including Sens. Cant fix stupid or true believers. Fifty-one percent of voters disapprove of his performance, including 56 . 1990 FLEER. Can we marry dogs? Johnson's campaign has lashed out at Barnes as a "career political activist" who is too far left for the purple state of Wisconsin, which Trump carried in 2016 and only narrowly lost in 2020. Independent Sens. googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1420576007798-2'); }); In Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson - who aligned with Trump's election challenge publicly while reportedly admitting privately that Biden won - starts the 2022 cycle with one of the weakest approval ratings (61 percent) among GOP voters. Multiple polls also show Johnson's approval ratings underwater. But Kleefisch did the best of the Republicans in thehead-to-head matchup against Evers, with 43% of the vote versus 47% for Evers. According to the latest Morning Consult poll, which covered the first three months of 2019, Manchin had a +5 net approval rating. 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By contrast, Baldwin's fellow Senator Ron Johnson elicits a much less favourable net approval rating of -22%, since 49% disapprove and 27% approve of Senator Johnson's overall job performance. Each currently enjoys an extraordinary PARG of +75 or higher. Morning Consult conducted 494,899 surveys with registered U.S. voters from October 1 through December 31, 2019, to determine the Q4 2019 Senator Rankings. Barnes was expected to have a tougher primary battle up until his top Democratic opponents dropped out late last month, clearing his path to the nomination, NBC projected. The January 6 hearings are a dog and pony show They should be holding the Jeffrey Epstein Videotaped Every US Congressman that Visited Epstein Pedophile Island and then Epstein Blackmailed Them hearings Or how about the Joe Biden Staged a Coup in Kiev in 2014, Overthrew the Democratically Elected Government of Ukraine, Then Murdered Over 15,000 Russian Speaking Ukraine Civilians hearings. According to a Morning Consult Political Intelligence survey of all 50 states, just 37% of registered Wisconsin voters approve of Johnson, while 51% disapprove. Democrats are reportedly trying to recruit former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath, who raised $8.6 million for an unsuccessful 2018 congressional bid, to run against him. But his rating among anti-Trump voters has steadily worsened, going from minus-24 in 2016 to minus-45 in 2020 to minus-58 this year. The gap between how Republicans and Democrats view him was large then, but its even larger now. Partisan types. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). RCP Senate Ratings, Map. The poll is hardly an outlier. Adding to the bad news for Johnson is that his approval rating continues to be at an all-time low with just 37% of registered voters saying they approve of him and 46% saying they disapprove. Accordingly, the floor is 40%. At the same time, Johnson has grown that much more unpopular among groups that tilt Democratic, tilt to the left and were already negative toward him. At this time last month, voters preferred Republicans by 2.2 points (44.7 percent to 42.5 percent). Any off-year election is going to be a referendum on Joe Biden, which is why its going to be a really difficult year for Democrats in places like Wisconsin, said former Wisconsin radio host Charlie Sykes, an early proponent of Johnson during his 2010 bid whos, and the Trump-inspired GOP. Democratic Lt. Gov. . Got a confidential news tip? Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for 1978 Topps Baseball (501-726) Pick from List EX-NM at the best online prices at eBay! For this analysis, Franklin and I examined Johnsons popularity with different demographic and political groups: men, women, old, young, liberal, conservative, urban, rural, suburban, etc. 56% of independent voters in Wisconsin disapproved of Johnsons job performance up 14 percentage points since late 2020. Based on Morning Consults approval ratings1 for every senator and governor in the country (now updated for the first quarter of 2022), PARS and PARG attempt to measure how much stronger (or weaker) a politician is than a generic (or, to use a term from baseball, replacement-level) candidate from their party would be. Both politicians were backed by 43 percent of likely voters. Americans Like Bidens Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. Quarterly polls conducted from 2017-2021 among representative samples of at least 2,517 registered Wisconsin voters, with unweighted margins of error of up to +/-3 percentage points for responses shown. Partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. But PARS reveals why the handicappers arent so sure. ago. That will be essential in a year when, based solely on partisan lean and generic congressional ballot polling, youd expect a Republican to win their home states, all else being equal. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). ", "It's not like we don't have enough jobs here in Wisconsin," he told reporters in February. If the magic of 2016 (for Johnson) was to convert dont knows to favorables, this year it looks like people who didnt have an opinion are being converted into unfavorables, said Franklin. Senator, Johnson won one of them, getting 45% versus 42% for Lasry. In an interview with CNN, Barnes said Johnson turned his back on working people. Johnson repeatedly referred to Barnes as radical, posting a tweet calling him the Democratic Partys most radical left candidate. The race has become one of the most highly anticipated races in the November election, as both parties attempt to tip the 50-50 stalemate in the Senate (Vice President Kamala Harris is the tiebreaker). Almost 40% of voters six years ago didnt know Johnson or had no opinion of him, compared with around20% today. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson will defend his seat against Democratic Lt. Gov. Ron Johnson's approval ratings are underwater in a swing state that President Joe Biden won. Johnson (Republican Party) ran for re-election to the U.S. Senate to represent Wisconsin.He won in the general election on November 8, 2022.. Johnson was first elected to the Senate in 2010 when he defeated incumbent Sen. Russ . However, the latest Maqrutee poll shows Johnson up 1% after a barrage of attacks ads. "First of all, I'm not a polarizing figure. Asked what Johnson is doing to improve his standing, spokeswoman Alexa Henning said his supporters discount mainstream media outlets and see through the lies and distortions of their false attacks. She said the senator had received strong encouragement to forgo his two-term pledge and run for re-election from Wisconsinites who share his grave concerns over the direction Democrats are taking our country.. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. Jon Tester (+33 PARS) and Sherrod Brown (+20 PARS), who have managed to win multiple elections despite hailing from red states. That conversation starts with Sen. Doug Jones, who comes in at No. Yet, even though his net approval rating has long been underwater, he easily won reelection in 2020 thanks to Kentuckys overwhelming Republican lean. Johnson, 67, has also been a magnet for criticism from Democrats who say he has spread harmful conspiracy theories about the . House Republicans want to repeal Biden's Inflation Reduction Act. People are more polarized over Johnson by party, by ideology, by gender and other measures. Wisconsin Democrats are eager to win back the Senate seat, which has been occupied by Republican Sen. Ron Johnson a top conservative foil and ally to former President Donald Trump since he . Baker, Hogan, Beshear and Edwards arent on the ballot this year; Baker and Hogan are retiring, while Kentucky and Louisiana elect their governors in odd years. 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How Every Senator Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement Senator, polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Then we compared Johnsons current standing among these groups with two earlier periods in his 12-year Senate career: 2019, when he enjoyed his best-sustained ratings in Marquettes polling; and late 2015 to early 2016, which was Johnsons low point in popularity before now. Given the history of midterms and President Bidens negative job ratings, 2022 is expected to be a good year for Republicans. But as Franklin points out, its really since 2019 that public opinion has grown markedly more negative and polarized over Johnson, and Johnson had already strongly aligned himself with Trump by then. In October, Johnson said that the top 1% of earners already pay "pretty close to a fair share. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Johnson, 67, has also been a magnet for criticism from Democrats who say he has spread harmful conspiracy theories about the coronavirus and the integrity of the 2020 election, among other controversial remarks. That may not look like anything special, but its actually quite impressive because Manchin is a Democrat in one of the reddest states in the nation (R+30). The Supreme Court Not So Much. He welcomes comment at: drooks .